China’s University Graduates to Reach 12.22 Million: High Unemployment and "Degree Inflation" Intensify Anxiety

Photo: A group of Tsinghua University students celebrating graduation. (Photo by China Photos/Getty Images)

[People News] China's Ministry of Education predicts that by 2025, the number of university graduates will hit a record high of 12.22 million. However, with increasing employment pressure, many graduates find themselves in the predicament of "graduating into unemployment." Some resort to forging internship certificates or relying on personal connections to find jobs, while others choose to pursue postgraduate studies or civil service exams to avoid immediate employment pressures, exacerbating the issue of "degree inflation." Experts warn that if China’s employment situation continues to deteriorate, it could lead to greater social discontent.

According to a report by Voice of America, the Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security recently announced that the number of university graduates nationwide is expected to reach 12.22 million in 2025, an increase of 430,000 compared to the previous year. Graduates will face even greater job-seeking challenges.

Although the National Bureau of Statistics reported on November 18 that the unemployment rate among urban youth aged 16–24 was 17.1%, down from 17.6% in September and 18.8% in August, many analysts question the reliability of these figures. Last year, China’s youth unemployment rate spiked to 21.3%, prompting authorities to temporarily suspend the release of age-specific unemployment statistics. Although the data was later resumed, it excluded students still enrolled in school, keeping the reported youth unemployment rate below 20%.

However, a study published in July last year by Zhang Dandan, an associate professor at Peking University’s National School of Development, revealed that the actual youth unemployment rate for ages 16–24 across China was as high as 46.5%, significantly higher than the official numbers.

Graduating Into Unemployment: Only 30% of Chinese Graduates Secure Jobs?

Archie (pseudonym), a 24-year-old recent law graduate, is currently interning at a law firm in Shanghai. In an interview with Voice of America, Archie candidly stated that the official unemployment figures released by the Chinese government are "completely unreliable." Based on his observations over the years, less than 30% of his peers, including older classmates and friends, have been able to secure jobs.

Archie explained: "Chinese universities indeed pressure you to find a job before graduation to boost overall employment rates. But there’s a lot of fabrication involved. Many students just casually find a company or administrative office to stamp a document claiming, symbolically, that someone interned or worked there. The authorities then count these cases as employment. The official graduate employment rate is entirely inaccurate—it’s purely deceptive."

He considers himself incredibly fortunate to have secured an internship in such a tough job market. Even graduates from prestigious universities like those under the "985" or "211" elite education initiatives struggle to find jobs. Archie cited an example of his boss’s son, who graduated this year with a literature degree from Shanghai Normal University. Facing immense challenges in finding employment, the family eventually sought help from a relative working at the local education bureau, securing a teaching position through connections.

Archie joked about how many graduates sarcastically say they’ll "go to factories and tighten screws," mocking their situation of having spent four years in university only to end up doing unskilled labor. He added that many consider delivering packages or becoming livestream hosts as viable career options.

He described it with dark humor: "For Chinese graduates, it’s like this: the guys deliver packages, the girls become livestream hosts. When the hosts are tired, they order delivery, and when the delivery guys are tired, they watch livestreams. It’s a popular joke, but it reflects how dire the job market is. When you can’t find anything else, these are the only two options left."

Avoiding Employment: Graduates Opt for Postgraduate and Civil Service Exams

Wade (pseudonym), a 20-year-old from Chongqing, Sichuan, is currently a second-year law student at an Australian university. He shared that one of his main reasons for studying abroad was concerns about China’s future prospects and job market, citing difficulties in finding work, high stress, and poor compensation.

Wade described his peers who stayed in China as being under immense pressure, often referred to as "particularly competitive." Discussions about academics and employment make him feel anxious. He noted that many universities in China have implemented stricter management to improve employment rates, increasing academic and internship demands. Some students begin frantically searching for internships as early as their first year, while those who can’t secure one often pay for fake internship opportunities, a practice that has become an open secret.

Wade explained to Voice of America: "The way universities manage students in China now feels more like high school. Students wake up early for morning study sessions and often have evening classes or study periods lasting until 8:30 p.m., limiting their extracurricular activities. They’re essentially confined to that environment. If you go on Chinese social platforms like Xiaohongshu, you’ll find plenty of advertisements offering fake internship certificates for amounts like 20,000 to 30,000 yuan (or more)."

According to Wade, the intense employment pressure has driven many university students to focus on postgraduate exams and civil service exams. With "degree inflation" becoming more severe, pursuing further education has become a critical way to enhance competitiveness and a "safe haven" for those who fail in the job market.

Wade added: "We call it 'full-time postgraduate exam preparation.' Many who don’t get into graduate school or fail to find suitable jobs leave school to prepare for exams at home, including exams for graduate programs or civil service positions. This has become quite common."

Wade believes that worsening economic conditions in China and other societal challenges have significantly lowered the "expectation for the future" among his peers. He is pessimistic about China’s future, citing the erosion of rights and freedoms, and he candidly admitted that he has no plans to return to China for his career.

University Student: Facing Employment Prospects Optimistically and Exploring Personal Value

Wang Yan, a 19-year-old sophomore majoring in Communication Engineering at the University of Electronic Science and Technology of China’s Glasgow College in Chengdu, Sichuan Province, expressed optimism about her future employment prospects in an interview with Voice of America. She highlighted that her university provides ample internship and research opportunities, creating favorable conditions for students’ development and enhancing their competitiveness. According to her, most graduates from her school secure positions in large enterprises or technology companies, and unemployment is not a significant issue on campus.

She explained: "In Chengdu, there are indeed many more job opportunities compared to second- or third-tier cities because there are many foreign-funded enterprises and large companies with branches here. For example, near our school, there’s Huawei and other tech companies’ branches. It’s a case of 'being close to the water gets the moon first.'"

As a STEM student, Wang Yan noted that STEM graduates tend to have broader applications in the job market compared to those with liberal arts backgrounds. However, she admitted feeling the pressure of competition during her freshman year and recognized that excessive competitiveness could negatively impact mental health. Looking ahead, she is not fixated on pursuing a career strictly aligned with her undergraduate major. She believes that taking time to relax and following personal interests and passions is also an essential part of personal growth.

Wang Yan shared: "It’s possible that many people will end up working in fields unrelated to their major. For example, some might choose to work in self-media or entrepreneurship. Life doesn’t necessarily have to follow a rigid path based on your academic major. I think having something you enjoy and are passionate about is worth pursuing. I like writing in my spare time, and I plan to keep accumulating experience. Who knows, maybe one day I’ll start my own public account or share essays and become a small writer. That would be pretty nice too."

China’s Economic Decline and Education Industrialization Lead to Talent Supply-Demand Imbalance

Xie Tian, a Chinese economic expert and Chair Professor at the Darla Moore School of Business at the University of South Carolina, told Voice of America that the rising youth unemployment rate in China is primarily caused by economic recession. As companies engage in mass layoffs and bankruptcies, and small businesses cease operations, the number of available jobs has significantly decreased. The economic downturn has directly impacted the employment prospects of young people and university graduates.

In addition, Xie pointed out that the Chinese government's industrialization of education and excessive university enrollment have led to a decline in educational quality. This has resulted in a large number of graduates lacking practical skills, with many holding degrees in fields misaligned with market demand, creating a mismatch between talent supply and industry needs. Many students, in an attempt to avoid the pressures of employment, continue their studies at the postgraduate level, further lowering the quality of graduate education. This disconnect between education and market needs has exacerbated the unemployment problem.

Scholar: Unemployment Crisis Could Pose Greater Challenges for Beijing

Sun Kuo-hsiang, a professor of International Affairs and Business at Nanhua University in Chiayi, Taiwan, noted that China’s high youth unemployment rate not only fuels social discontent but also poses a challenge to political stability. He remarked that many young people are disappointed with government policies, citing the "White Paper Revolution" and the recent nighttime cycling protests in Zhengzhou as expressions of such dissatisfaction. Sun warned that if these issues remain unresolved, they could further erode public trust in the government.

He also highlighted that job pressures are driving some young people to seek opportunities abroad, resulting in a brain drain. This not only weakens China’s international competitiveness but also delays the domestic application of their skills, negatively affecting innovation and economic development.

"Now, with the Chinese government extending the retirement age, if the country’s economy cannot achieve a robust internal and external circulation, the youth unemployment rate in mainland China might remain unresolved for years. Each year, the job market will have to absorb graduates from the previous year who have yet to find employment," Sun explained.